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Predicting 2012

I’m a bit of a political junkie.  I have strong opinions on all of the big topics but what I love the most is the strategy that goes into campaigning.

I love to look at the different variables and figure out what I would do to win for both sides.  My favorite tool when it comes to presidential races is 270towin.com.  It’s a website with an interactive electoral map.  The states that are solidly one side or the other are already assigned.  From there you can play with the states to see what different scenarios you can come up with.

The map defaults to Obama 196, Romney 181 – however Michigan is going to go to Obama.  I don’t see Romney being able to overcome the “Let Detroit go bankrupt” editorial and the union vote.  I think Romney rides a strong Mormon vote in Nevada and wins that state.

This makes the race 212 / 186 with the magic number being 270.  For all purposes the race looks like this:  Obama: -58; Romney : -89.  The entire race, as always, is going to come down to Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  With a 30-electoral-vote-lead and only 58 to go, Obama essentially wins if he can take two of the three.  Romney would have to nearly run the table to pull this out if Obama goes two for three.  He would have to nearly shut out Obama and win a minimum of 5 of the last 8, more likely 6 of the last 8 to win.

If I’m the DNC, I double down on Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and do the rest of my heavy spending in Virginia and North Carolina. Wisconsin seems to be leaning blue so a little spending there could help.  A lot of the smaller states up for grabs have Democratic voting trends and could go blue without heavy spending.  The Obama war-chest is likely to be pretty substantial without a primary battle so he’s likely to go big in every battle ground state.  I predict resources will be much tighter in the red camp which is going to put Romney in a tough spot.

If I’m the RNC, first I make sure Senator Rubio is the VP pick.  This should help close the Latino voter gap and secure Florida allowing for resources to be spent elsewhere.  North Carolina and Virginia are must wins and it’s also important to win Pennsylvania or Ohio (pick whatever one is polling better and hit it hard.)  If you can pick up those southern states and either PA or OH, then Romney only needs to win one of the Wisconsin, Colorado, Missouri group or New Mexico and Iowa together to win the White House in a squeaker.

Assuming Rubio is the VP and Biden is still on the ticket (helping deliver PA,) this is where I predict the country will fall.  Obama wins 279 to 259.